What Does P(DOOM) Mean in a Text?
Quick Answer
P(doom) is a probability notation that represents the likelihood of catastrophic or existential disaster, particularly in discussions about artificial intelligence (AI) risk.More Details
P(doom) represents the likelihood that advanced AI development could lead to catastrophic outcomes for humanity, i.e., it rates the chance that humans will become extinct in the near future. The term is often used in AI safety research communities and effective altruism circles to discuss existential risks. The debate around what specific probability to assign to such scenarios (i.e., what number P(doom) should be) is an active area of discussion among AI safety researchers and philosophers.
The numbering system is a probability between 0 and 1 (or 0% to 100%), where:- 0 or 0% means there is absolutely no chance of existential catastrophe. 1 or 100% means catastrophe is certain.
- Numbers in between represent different levels of risk.
- P(doom) = 0.01 would mean a 1% chance.
- P(doom) = 0.1 would mean a 10% chance.
- P(doom) = 0.5 would mean a 50% chance.
Different researchers and philosophers propose different probabilities based on their analysis of AI development trajectories, safety measures, and potential failure modes. These estimates can vary widely, from very low probabilities like 0.01% to much higher ones like 20% or more, reflecting the uncertainty and complexity of assessing these risks.
Check out our glossary of AI terms.Image for P(DOOM)
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P(doom) rates the likelihood of catastrophic or existential disaster.
Summary of Key Points
| P(DOOM) | |
|---|---|
| Definition: | Estimated Probability of Existential Catastrophe |
| Type: | Word (Jargon) |
| Guessability: |  4: Difficult to guess |
| Typical Users: |  Specialists |
An Academic Look at P(Doom)
P(doom) is a mathematical notation consisting of "P," which is a function marker representing "probability," and "(doom)," which is the argument of the function, where "doom" is a noun. It is an example of domain-specific jargon, especially in AI safety and existential risk discussions. It uses blending of formal probability notation and colloquial language (doom rather than a precise mathematical event description).
- "P(doom) is increasing." (Subject.)
- "They calculated P(doom)." (Object.)
Example of P(DOOM) Used in a Text
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